But first, a couple great movies are out this weekend:

• You, Me & Tuscany, a delightful slice-of-Italy romantic-comedy starring Halle Bailey and Regé-Jean Page, satiated my fill for a hearty comfort watch. Read my review.

• Mother Mary is a relationship drama, gothic ghost story, pop musical, horror, or a genre all its own. It may be undefinable, but it’s definitely is clear-eyed in its search for raw intimacy in creative collaboration (with a side of pop divadom). Read my review.

Streaming on Paramount+

“Strange Darling”

What it’s about: A woman—only credited as “The Lady”—is relentlessly chased by a determined pursuant—credited as “The Devil”. But reader I assure you, nothing is as it seems.

Why you should watch it: The title card for Strange Darling splashes onto the screen paired with the subtitle “a thriller in six chapters” before cheekily jumping to chapter three. From that moment, director J.T. Toller keeps you guessing as he grabs you by your collar and takes you on a frenetic maximalist romp. When you think it is going to zig, it zags. When you think it’s going to jump, it soars. The opening chapters of the movie, shot in glorious 35mm by Giovanni Rabisi, are an assault on the senses. With saturated cinematography bringing a mad technicolor world to life and crisp near-deafening sound underlined by Craig DeLeon‘s discordant bass guitar score thrumming it feels like you’re on the fury road—and you might as well be. Read my full review here.

Recommended if you like: cheeky plot twists, simple suspense, heavy metal thrills

97 mins. Watch the trailer.

Streaming on HBO Max

“Kimi”

What it’s about: Tech worker Angela (Zoë Kravitz) thinks she uncovers a crime while reviewing audio recordings for her job. Suffering from agoraphobia and with the pandemic raging outside, Angela has to face her fears when a deeper conspiracy unveils itself.

Why you should watch it: Few movies have been able to capture the anxiety of the pandemic age quite as viscerally as Steven Soderbergh’s Kimi. While it’s mainly a techno-thriller that’s Rear Window—that is, if the window was actually a smart speaker—by way of The Conversation, the most interesting part of the movie is the subtle flourishes that immerse you. The claustrophobia of lockdown with the eerie omniscience of technology pervades throughout the entire movie. So when it turns into a more classic crime thriller, you’re able to sink yourself deep into the intrigue.

RIYL: classic crime thrillers, surveillance paranoia, corporate intrigue

89 mins. Watch the trailer.

Streaming on Netflix

“Shiva Baby”

What it’s about: Danielle (Rachel Sennott), a college student and seemingly never-good-enough daughter, attends a family shiva where her relatives constantly accost her with questions about her life, her ex-girlfriend looms large, and, oh yeah, her sugar daddy is there with his family. It turns out just as well as you think.

Why you should watch it: Okay, maybe Shiva Baby isn’t quite a thriller, but what is more suspenseful than a family gathering where anything can happen. Still, Shiva Baby takes the same approach as a thriller. The camera creeps around corners and Ariel Marx’s terrific score amplifies the suspense-filled mood with discordant strings where the horrors of family—that aunt that can’t just help but comment on your weight—lurks in the shadows. But director Emma Seligman doesn’t go full-tilt horror. She toes a precarious line between comedy, drama, horror, and tragedy. Let’s be honest. We all know what it feels like to come home for a family gathering. Shiva Baby captures that feeling with a witty sense of humor that will make you laugh through your trauma.

RIYL: melodramas, familial dry humor, cringe thrills

78 mins. Watch the trailer.

That’s all for today. Have a thrilling weekend!
Karl

📽 P.S. You can see every movie I’ve ever recommended right here.
🍅 I’m also a Tomatometer-approved critic on Rotten Tomatoes! You can find new movie reviews here and here.
🔗 Find me on Letterboxd and Twitter.

Mother Mary is in theaters Friday.

Director-writer David Lowery isn’t the type to make a movie about a pop star, especially in this era where pop stardom has been taken to a magnitude never seen before. It’s akin to worship. But that’s where the brilliance lies within Mother Mary. The movie pulls you in with bright neon lights, earth-shaking bass, and the grandiose scale of an arena concert with Anne Hathaway, as the eponymous pop star, commanding the screen and your attention. However, like any good pop song, that’s just the hook that Lowery uses as a Trojan horse to tell a much deeper and darker story in a way that’s anything but ordinary.

That’s what Lowery has been doing all his career. He will take a subject or a story like a woman in grief (A Ghost Story) or a boy and his imaginary friend (Pete’s Dragon) and approach it precisely at the angle you don’t expect, which is what makes the grounded and subdued first act of Mother Mary all the more baffling. Not that it isn’t engrossing. The way Mother Mary sweeps into her former creative collaborator Sam Anselm’s (Michaela Coel) brooding gothic home and fashion design studio feels like a storm coming against a mountain. For the less meteorologically inclined, that means kaboom.

Muse vs. Creator

There’s a quiet contrast in the way the pair move in the world. Mother Mary, though stripped down to just a simple sweater and sweatpants, has the volatility of a creative in distress. She has a thousand thoughts in her head, but can’t seem to hold onto one. Her horror is that she can fall apart at any moment. Sam, on the other hand, has an eerie calm to her. Mother Mary explains that her sudden reappearance in Sam’s life is because she needs a dress for her comeback performance where she’ll perform her new song. She explains that the one she has “doesn’t feel like me.” To which, with a steely calm, Sam replies, “Because I, above all others, know you.”

Sam (and Coel’s Shakespearean performance) is beguiling in the way that she seems to be at peace, but can easily throw a barb that cuts straight to the heart. Sam agrees to help Mother Mary despite their animosity that remains shrouded. The film presents as a melodramatic relationship drama, as Sam quickly busies herself picking fabrics and probes Mother Mary for information about this comeback performance (the reason for the comeback is equally shrouded in mystery). We learn that the pair had a deep creative partnership stretching back to Mary’s early days in the industry. Her signature halo, which changes from performance to performance, was Sam’s idea. An idea that is stitched permanently to Mary’s identity as an artist. An identity whose ownership comes into question throughout the encounter.

But they’re both careful to never broach the subject of their separation head-on. There’s an unsettling sense of calm.

Although, there are a few inklings of what’s to come later in this reunion. Sam asks Mother Mary to show her the dance to the song, but without music. In all this time apart, Sam hasn’t listened to Mother Mary’s music. The resulting dance, stripped down to its raw physicality, feels like a demonic possession. The sound of Mother Mary’s strained breath and the violent thuds as she throws herself around the room is visceral and unsettling—especially juxtaposed against the echoing silence of the space. It feels supernatural.

Genre Subversion (From Pop to Possession)

As the day turns into night, there’s a palpable shift in the air of the movie. It becomes darker but more alive, like a lightning bolt shot in the dark. Sam tells Mary of the last time she heard her music. As she watches Mother Mary perform on stage after their split, Sam, overcome by emotion at seeing her own artistry in front of her without credit, bites down splintering her wisdom tooth. Like a storybook, Lowery shows the incident unfold before us like a body horror. Later that night, Sam regales Mary of the tale of a ghost, manifested as a simple tract of red fabric, awakening her that night.

Mary listens on with horror as she realizes that the ghost that Sam saw may be the same the she once saw through a sort of medium played by FKA Twigs. The ensuing scene, the best of the movie, feels more akin to The Exorcist than the pop opera the movie started as. Twigs, contorting herself around the room warning of some being coming for Mother Mary, is otherworldly extraordinary and catapults the movie into a full gothic horror where the feeling of dread pervades laced with the haunting beats of Mother Mary’s music. Her contortions echo Mary’s earlier silent dance, but here the possession becomes literal. It begins help us to unravel exactly what Lowery is trying to communicate with the story.

Jack Antonoff, Charli XCX, and FKA Twigs all contributed music to the soundtrack that becomes the backbone of Mother Mary’s tale of artistic and physical burnout. In an awe-inspiring scene, Mary goes from concert to concert, ushered by a crowd of dancers as we watch the toll of constant touring take hold. The glitchy, abrasive synths underline the visceral toll taken onscreen. The scenes move like a dance but keep the same gothic tone as the rest of the movie. Cinematographer Andrew Droz Palermo stays true to the bright lights of a concert, but staying true to the movie’s gothic tone disorients you with the camera’s movements. It’s a body horror, what artists do to keep up pace with their demanding schedule.

These traded stories begin to form a picture of what the movie is about. Though Lowery has never been one to give easy explanations of his work, Mother Mary lays itself threadbare by the end giving a cutting (at times, quite literally) appraisal of artistic relationships and how for all their fruit, can lead to self-destruction. As Mother Mary finds herself falling apart, Sam finds herself building walls. It’s not coincidence that her home and fashion studio looks like a fortress. Lowery, with the horror of the movie, compares partnership with posession, and eventually exorcism. Literally giving someone else control of your body and in return giving some of yours.

Mother Mary is hard to define. It is a relationship drama, a ghost story, a musical, a thriller. Or perhaps, it is a genre all its own. For me, it is a liturgical horror—a film that treats the act of collaboration with the same dread and devotion as a haunted cathedral. What is clear is that David Lowery is clear-eyed in his search for raw intimacy in partnership. And to find that intimacy involves laying your ugliest impulses out in front of your collaborator. Only then can the ghost of all your self doubt, your history, and your baggage be exorcised.

You, Me & Tuscany, or perhaps “My Big Fat Eat, Pray, Love Under the Tuscan Sun”, is like a hearty Italian cheat meal. You know it’s bad for you. You know it’s empty calories. You know the absurd amount of cheese might give you agita. But do you savor every delicious bite? You’re damn right. The mid-budget romantic-comedy has become a rarity in theaters, as most entries in the genre seem to never make it out of streaming purgatory, but the charming pairing of Halle Bailey and Regé Jean-Page (and a cast of lovable characters) more than cover the cost of admission.

RIYL: Enemies-to-lovers, quirky family comedies, Italy (but like stereotypical Italy)

You, Me & Tuscany is in theaters on Friday.

The age of the PG-13 romantic-comedy and the corny romantic splendors of Maid in Manhattan, The Wedding Planner, Monster-in-Law (was J. Lo the only person doing rom-coms?) is long gone.

Or is it? In this era where cynicism seems to rule the tastes of the movie-going public (or at least the people on Film Twitter), You, Me & Tuscany bravely asks, “you want cheese?” And then proceeds to give you five kinds before sprinkling more Parmesan on top for good measure.

The movie, directed by Kat Coiro, speed runs through the greatest hits of romantic-comedy tropes. There’s not just one dead parent, there’s three! Our heroine is an aspiring chef (and culinary school dropout)! She has a sassy best friend! There’s a random animal pet (in this case, a pig)! However, you can’t help but eat up every line of corny banter and wacky side characters because that’s what you want from your cheat cinema. “You, Me & Tuscany” may be empty Italian calories, but like all empty calories, it just tastes so damn good going down.

Halle Bailey’s performance as our down-on-our-luck heroine is the perfect base to this dish.

Anna is a professional house sitter (because those exist!) who can’t seem to catch a break. Her dreams of completing culinary school were dashed when her mother passed away (mothers of rom-com leading ladies, beware), and she bides her time moving on with her life by living other people’s. After being unceremoniously kicked out of her current gig for—checks notes—wearing her client’s lingerie, Anna seeks refuge in the swanky hotel where her bestie (Aziza Scott) works.

Seeking refuge at the bar, Anna has a meet-cute with the impressively gorgeous Matteo, who regales her with tales of his vacant Tuscan villa in the village where he grew up before inviting her upstairs and—less impressively—falling asleep. Inspired by the encounter, Anna decides to take a long-delayed trip meant for her and her late mother. She flies to Tuscany that same day, only to find the town fully booked for a mysterious (but very Italian-sounding) festival and her lunch stolen by another handsome stranger, Michael (Regé-Jean Page). It’s a sandwich-swiping "meet-ugly" she hopes never to repeat. But this movie is called YOU, Me & Tuscany.

With nowhere else to go, Anna hatches a plan to stay in Matteo’s vacant villa.

It’s all gold Italian sunsets and laundry machines in the villa until Anna is caught by Matteo’s—ahem—vocal mother Gabriella (Isabella Ferrari) and Nonna (Stefania Casini), having failed at a hasty escape via pole. Since she’s decided to "take nonna's ring for a spin" earlier, she’s quickly mistaken for Matteo’s secret fiancée and has no choice but to lean into the lie and assimilate into the quirky clan. The plot thickens, however, when she realizes that Matteo's cousin is none other than Michael, the impossibly handsome (but rude) sandwich thief from earlier. As wedding planning commences and Michael and Anna spend quality time together in the family vineyard, the romance of the Tuscan countryside—and Michael’s glistening abs—starts to work its magic.

And that’s when You, Me & Tuscany finds its secret sauce. The Italian countryside (and all its quirks and quirky people) is easy to watch.

For all its cinematic rough edges, Coiro finds a way to capture the dreamlike warmth of the setting. There’s something so nostalgic about the world the movie inhabits. Whether it’s because it reminds you of the rom-coms of the early aughts or makes you yearn for an Italian vacation, it’s as intoxicating as the romance at its core. The wide-ranging cast of oddballs, like adorably loyal taxi driver Lorenzo (Marco Calvani) or Matteo’s hilariously honest sister Francesca (Stella Pecollo), adds to that feeling. It's the perfect setting to lose yourself in for 105 minutes.

You, Me & Tuscany isn’t reinventing the wheel. It plays more like an improvised cobbled-together stew rather than a meticulously assembled dish. But every element just works. Bailey and Page (who gives a fantastic performance even outside his movie star good looks) have the kind of presence that commands a screen. You’re rooting for them to fall in love. Every side character, even ratched up to a hundred, is hilarious and charming. And there’s just enough drama to keep things interesting. It’s a story (and faces) worth putting on the big screen. It’s a love worth watching on the big screen.

Happy Friday and for those reading from the northeast, I’m sorry for your loss. I’m of course talking about the gorgeous 78 degree weather that has been so unceremoniously taken from us and replaced with the cold and dreary rain.

However, that fleeting bit of summer has me thinking of the freedom of warmer weather. So, for today I’m continuing my best movies of the decade series with some recommendations about the intoxicating feeling of freedom. You can see my volume one recs here.

I wrote this newsletter listening to Snail Mail’s terrific and limitless new album “Ricochet”. Have a listen here.

Streaming on Prime Video

“Lovers Rock”

What it’s about: It’s the 80s. West London. A group of teens and twentysomethings scurry about a house making preparations for a party that night. Once the sun goes down and the records come on, they leave the world at the door and give themselves up to the irresistible feeling and emotion of music. Watch the trailer.

Why you should watch it: For most of his career, Steve McQueen has dealt heavily with trauma (“12 Years A Slave, “Blitz”). But with “Lovers Rock”, the standout entry in his “Small Axe” anthology series, he focuses on the visceral weight of joy. Set over the course of a single night at a 1980s house party in West London, the film trades a traditional plot for a sustained, rhythmic mood. It is an all-out sensory immersion: the smell of goat curry wafting through a cramped kitchen, the sight of condensation dripping down wallpaper, and the tactile friction of bodies swaying in a blue-lit room.

In one scene, the party’s DJ is playing Janet Kay’s “Silly Games.” He slowly fades the song out, but like they’re in a trance the people on the dance floor continue to move. With closed eyes they dance, they hold each other, and they sing. It’s a moment you want to live in forever. “Lovers Rock” surrounds and consumes you as you watch the partiers dance, fall in love, and feel unbridled joy. Just bodies in a room moving together making you want to join in.

68 mins.

Streaming on HBO Max

“Flow”

What it’s about: In a near future (or alternate present), a solitary black cat living in the ruins of what seems to be human civilization is faced with a catastrophic flood. Seeking refuge on a drifting sailboat alongside a capybara, a lemur, a dog, and a secretarybird, the unlikely band of misfits have to find a way to survive. Watch the trailer.

Why you should watch it: Not a single word is spoken in Gints Zilbalodis’ extraordinary second feature, and honestly? It doesn’t need any. Built entirely in open-source software by a Latvian director still in his twenties (like show-off much), “Flow” starts, well, flowing and doesn’t stop. The nonstop plot is reminiscent of “Mad Max: Fury Road”. Just trade the post-apocalyptic desert for a post-apocalyptic great ocean and the last survivors of human civilization for a ragtag group of animals.

It has the visual grammar of a dream and the emotional pull of something deeply human. Watching that cat inch toward its fellow survivors, sharing fish, learning to steer, you feel something loosen in your chest. Cinema doesn’t always need language. Sometimes it just needs a cat and its friends on a boat at the end of the world.

85 mins.

Streaming on Hulu

“Thelma”

What’s it about: When 93-year-old grandmother Thelma Post (June Squibb) is conned out of $10,000, she takes matters into her own hands to get her money back. With help from her retirement home friend Ben (Shaft himself, Richard Roundtree) and his motorized scooter, she treks across Los Angeles to reclaim her money and prove she can do it all on her own. Watch the trailer.

Why you should watch it: “Thelma” is one part delightful comedy of manners that only gets wilder and funnier as it goes on. June Squibb’s performance as the headstrong (but sometimes technologically-challenged) Thelma is hilarious as she tries to navigate a dangerous world (and yes, a set of stairs are the danger). Josh Margolin treats Thelma’s journey like an entry in the “Mission: Impossible” franchise, except instead of skydiving from the Burj Kalifa she’s trying to get a box from a high shelf.

However, what makes “Thelma” great is the other part of the story. One about resilience, the dignity of getting older and how our family’s underestimation can cut deep at any age. Delightfully mad, surprisingly moving, and constantly entertaining, it’s one of the best movies of the decade.

98 mins.

In Movie News

There were a slew of new trailers this week:

• “Mother Mary”: David Lowery (“A Ghost Story”, “Pete’s Dragon”) returns to with a psychological drama-thriller-horror-musical (forgive me if I left off a genre). Anne Hathaway and Michaela Coel with music by Jack Antonoff, Charli xcx, and FKA Twigs. Trailer here.

• “Backrooms”: I guess they’re making 4chan threads into movies now! The infamous “backrooms” internet meme is coming in the form of a horror-thriller starring Chiwetel Ejiofor, Renate Reinsve, and Mark Duplass. Trailer here.

• “Masters of the Universe”: You know that twink from “Red, White, and Royal Blue”? He’s buff now… and playing He-Man. The comic book superhero turned queer TV icon finally has his own movie. And yes, the blonde bob is bobbing. Trailer here.

That’s it for this week. Love you. See you next week!

Karl

📽 P.S. You can see every movie I’ve ever recommended right here.
🍅 I’m also a Tomatometer-approved critic on Rotten Tomatoes! You can find new movie reviews here and here.
🔗 Find me on Letterboxd and Twitter.

In addition, we’ve excitingly migrated the entire Smash Cut site to Substack. You can now access all of my (and a few guest writers) reviews, analyses, lists and more at smashcutreviews.com (bear with me while we get the site up-to-date).

To kick off this new era, I’m going to spend the next few weeks recommending some of my favorite movies of the decade available to stream.

You can let me know what you think of the newsletter, any movie recommendations or just to say hello by replying to this email or karl@smashcutreviews.com. Enough yapping, without further ado today’s first recommendation is…

Streaming on HBO Max

“On Becoming a Guinea Fowl”

What it’s about: While driving home from a party, Shula (Susan Chardy) comes across the body of her uncle Fred lying in the middle of the road. There’s no hysterics, she simply calls her dad to let him know as casually as telling him she’s going to be late for dinner. Did I mention she’s dressed like Missy Elliot in the “Supa Dupa Fly” music video? In this surrealistic and darkly comedic family drama, Shula navigates her complicated family dynamics as secrets threaten to interrupt the funeral services. Watch the trailer.

Why you should watch it: Every person from or born to someone from the “worldwide Latina belt” knows the mysterious and mystical force of “aunties” in the family — in my Filipino family they were known as “the titas.” These woman hold the matriarchal power of the family in their tightly knit circles and protect their people with steely (and hilariously sassy) authority. But what happens when the protection of one family member harms another? In Rungano Nyoni’s sophomore feature, she explores that dynamic through a would-be family drama that has a tone closer to offbeat comedy than the movie’s themes would suggest. And while it’s a surprisingly entertaining watch, it digs into the thorny dark truths of Zambian society without holding back.

95 mins.

Streaming on Hulu

“Twinless”

What it’s about: Dennis (James Sweeney) and Rocky (Dylan O’Brien) become fast friends after meeting (perhaps meet-cute-ing?) at a twin grief support group after losing their respective twin brothers. They quickly fall into an intimate friendship, but a secret from Dennis’s past threatens to tear them apart. Watch the trailer.

Why you should watch it: The male loneliness epidemic has manifested itself in media in many ways, but none quite as delightful (and profound) as James Sweeney’s odd couple platonic rom-com. While we delight in the pair’s shenanigans ranging from Hockey games (the players aren’t the only people getting in brawls…) to house parties (featuring a cheeky cameo by “Heated Rivalry” star Francois Arnaud), an early-movie twist that I’ll keep hush hush casts a pall over the pair’s budding friendship. Through all the wry laughs and silly gags, “Twinless” is about finding connection in a world where it seems harder to be yourself, and in that you’ll find yourself falling for both of these characters (especially O’Brien who gives one of the finest performances of the decade).

100 mins.

Streaming on HBO Max

“Godzilla Minus One”

What it’s about: It’s post-World War II Japan and the country is picking up the pieces from the destruction. Sure hope a giant mutant sea creature that breathes fire doesn’t complicate matters. Well… it does. In an origin story for this iconic movie monster, a ragtag group of heroes have to save the country from destruction (again). Watch the trailer.

Why you should watch it: You know him. You love him. You’ve seen hundreds of thousands people (including Matthew Broderick) running from him. It’s Godzilla! With these long-running franchises you come to expect each reinvention to be more epic than the last. But, staying true to its name, “Godzilla Minus One” is one of the finest movies of the decade because it scales things back. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty of city-wide destruction rendered in stunning (and Oscar-winning!) CGI. But director Takashi Yamazaki scales things back and presents the movie from human perspective. It feels more akin to “Jaws” than it does the classic black-and-white originals from the 50s. It hits every beat you want a major blockbuster to hit. You’ll laugh, you’ll cry, you’ll cheer. And at the end you’ll be hoping that the big guy finds a way to rise again.

125 mins.

Watch: The VFX artists behind the movie breakdown the stunning CGI.

In Movie News

“Forgotten Island” brings Filipino culture to Hollywood

There have been plenty of Hollywood animated movies about and featuring Asian culture — “Mulan”, “Turning Red” and, most recently, “Hoppers” — but Southeast Asia hasn’t gotten the treatment… until now. DreamWorks Animation, the studio behind “Shrek” and those annoying yellow things with the overalls, are bringing us to the islands of the Philippines in a colorful and mystical journey through memory. The movie is slated for this fall. Here’s the first trailer:

That’s it for this week. Love you. See you next week!

Karl

📽 P.S. You can see every movie I’ve ever recommended right here.
🍅 I’m also a Tomatometer-approved critic on Rotten Tomatoes! You can find new movie reviews here and here.
🔗 Find me on Letterboxd and Twitter.

Leading up to Oscar night, it’s rare for two movies to be so dominant the entire season. Even in years where Best Picture was uncertain, there were signs of weakness whether it was “1917” lacking acting support or “La La Land” missing a key precursor nomination. It always felt like a tale of David and Goliath (appropriately David usually won).

This year, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” are both goliaths. Here’s my best shot at predicting what will happen Sunday night. And staying true to the newsletter, I’ll tell you where to stream the nominees.

Typically, the ceremony starts with one of the supporting races. Let’s dive into one that perfectly explains the head versus the heart when it comes to Oscar predictions.

Predicted winners are in bold. My preferred winner is in italics.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (streaming on HBO Max)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (streaming on Netflix)
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (streaming on HBO Max)***
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgard, “Sentimental Value” (available to rent)

Since 2010, if a nominee in a supporting category won both the BAFTA and the Actor (formerly Screen Actors Guild) awards they would go on to win the Oscar. Every. Single. Time. That means that Sean Penn should win for his villainous turn in “One Battle After Another”. However, for such an unprecedented year, I think we’re heading for an unprecedented win and see Delroy Lindo win for his equal parts funny and heartbreaking turn in “Sinners”.

Penn has won two Oscars, so there isn’t appetite to award him, especially considering he didn’t even bother showing up to the BAFTAs or Actors. I think that’ll lead a lot of voters to vote with their hearts. Though, that could also benefit Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgard.

Best Production Design

“Frankenstein”***
“Hamnet” (streaming on Peacock)
“Marty Supreme” (available to rent)
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”

While I think the re-creation of post-war New York in “Marty Supreme” is the most-deserving winner, “Frankenstein” boasts the scientist’s lab and an entire era-accurate ship.

Best Costume Design

“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Frankenstein”***
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sinners”

“Frankenstein” is the clear frontrunner for its elaborate period costumes. However, Ruth E. Carter is a known name and while “Sinners” has the simplest costumes, I think her period accurate work could be enough to pull the upset. I’m going to go with the stats here, but never rule out the stronger Best Picture in any category.

Best Sound

“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Sirat”

“Sirat” boasts thumping electronic music, desert winds and explosions as a part of its impressive soundscape. And while “F1” matches the typical profile of a winner of this category (“vehicle make loud sound hoorah”), I think the mix of music and sound effects in “Sinners” will take it across the line.

Best Visual Effects

“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“Jurassic World Rebirth”
“The Lost Bus”
“Sinners”

The subtler work in “F1” and “Sinners” is impressive, but not entirely obvious. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” should easily win this for a franchise threepeat. I mean, those blue people look good!

Best Original Score

“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”

Ludwig Göransson will win his third Oscar in just eight years for his blues-infused score for “Sinners” although I prefer Jonny Greenwood’s off-kilter, jangly score for “One Battle After Another”.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (streaming on HBO Max)***
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”

Potentially the most competitive race in Oscar history with three contenders splitting the major precursor awards. Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe for her screen-scorching performance as revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills in “One Battle After Another”, Wunmi Mosaku, the heart of “Sinners”, won the BAFTA and Amy Madigan won the Actor for her villainous turn in “Weapons”.

But for every tick in their favor, each actress has a tick against her. Taylor won neither of the industry awards (the Globes are voted on by journalists), Madigan is the sole nomination for her movie, and since 2010 if a supporting actress only won BAFTA she lost the Oscar every time.

I’m thinking Mosaku and Taylor split the Best Picture frontrunner vote and Madigan ekes out a tight (but well-deserved) win.

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” (“Diane Warren: Relentless”)
“Golden” (“KPop Demon Hunters”)*** (streaming on Netflix)
“I Lied to You” (“Sinners”)
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” (“Viva Verdi!”)
“Train Dreams” (“Train Dreams”)

You’ve probably been unable to escape “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” if you happen to step outside and into any given CVS. Although there’s a chance “I Lied to You” from “Sinners” pulls off a shocking upset.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Frankenstein”***
“Kokuho”
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine” (streaming on HBO Max)
“The Ugly Stepsister” (streaming on Hulu)

Probably the coolest set of nominees with body horror movie “The Ugly Stepsister”, Japanese epic “Kokuho”, and Dwayne Johnson’s transformation in “The Smashing Machine” nabbing very deserved noms. But rule of thumb is if there is a Best Picture nominee in a category, they’ll likely win. And the work to transform Jacob Elordi into Frankenstein’s monster in “Frankenstein” will be too much for the Academy to pass up.

Best Film Editing

“F1”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
”Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”

“F1” fits the bill for the type of film that wins this category (see: “Ford v Ferrari”). However, the kinetic, heart-racing pace of “One Battle After Another” will and should win here. But don’t count “Sinners” out to pull an upset for it exquisite musical sequences.

Best Cinematography

“Frankenstein”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams” (streaming on Netflix)

“One Battle After Another” won all the necessary precursors to point to an easy win. However, Autumn Durald Arkapaw has been strong on the campaign trail and could become the first woman (and person of color) to win in this category for “Sinners” — and the Oscars love to make history. Don’t count out a double upset by “Train Dream” that was basically made for people to screenshot and say “great cinematography” on Twitter.

Best Original Screenplay

“Blue Moon” (streaming on Netflix)
“It Was Just an Accident” (streaming on Hulu)
“Marty Supreme”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”***

Ryan Coogler is all but guaranteed to take home a deserved Oscar for the most highly original screenplay of the year.

Best Adapted Screenplay

“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”***
“Train Dreams”

And the same goes for Paul Thomas Anderson for his adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland”.

Best Casting

“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”***
“The Secret Agent”

For the first time in 25 years, the Oscars introduced a new category. Best Casting awards (1) how well each actor fits into their roles and (2) the discovery of new actors and strong use of established actors. “Sinners” diverse cast put together by legendary casting director Francine Maisler will be an apt inaugural winner. However, the discovery of Chase Infiniti and wide ranging use of massive stars, character actors, up-and-comers and perfectly cast featured roles would make “One Battle After Another” my pick.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (streaming on HBO Max)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (streaming on Hulu)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (streaming on Peacock)

Since the movie premiered last fall, it seemed ordained that Jessie Buckley would take home her first Oscar for her performance as a grieving mother in “Hamnet”, and after sweeping every award this season it’s all but assured. Shoutout to Rose Byrne’s markedly different take on a mother’s grief in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”, she’s been long overdue for a nomination.

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”***
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”

Just a month ago, it felt all but certain that Timothée Chalamet would win his first Oscar for his towering performance in “Marty Supreme”. And then he lost… and then he lost again. It’s incredibly rare for an actor to win without first winning the BAFTA or Actor award. However, he didn’t lose BAFTA to any of his fellow nominees (winner Robert Aramayo will be eligible next year) and the Actor Award’s more populist tastes could have pushed Michael B. Jordan to a win.

However, Chalamet’s polarizing campaign (remember the sphere) and relative young age could scare voters away. And although Wagner Moura could ride a wave of support for “The Secret Agent” to a win or Ethan Hawke could garner votes for his long career for “Blue Moon”, I think it’s more likely that a popular actor in a popular movie wins. Jordan should eke out a win here by the thinnest of margins.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”

Paul Thomas Anderson, who’s given us masterpieces like “Boogie Nights”, “Magnolia”, and “There Will Be Blood”, will finally get his long overdue Oscar regardless of where Best Picture goes later in the night. However, Ryan Coogler could pull off a shocking upset similar to Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”) if “Sinners” pulls off an upset in Best Picture…

Best Picture

"Bugonia”
”F1”
”Frankenstein”
”Hamnet”
”Marty Supreme”
”One Battle After Another”***
”The Secret Agent”
”Sentimental Value”
”Sinners”
”Train Dreams”

There has been a real and quantifiable surge towards “Sinners” in the last few days before and during Oscar voting. And it’s not without precedent to see the late breaking Actor Award winner for Best Cast to go on to upset the established frontrunner (“Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan”, “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain”, “Parasite” over “1917”). However, “One Battle After Another” is a more popular movie than any of those losing contenders.

While I think the late surge for “Sinners” will win it a few extra prizes (Supporting Actor, Actor, Cinematography), there are a few reasons I think it will ultimately be “One Battle”":

• American voting bodies have split awards down the middle for both movies, while international voting bodies (about 25% of The Academy is non-American), have broken more decisively for “One Battle”.

• The only Best Picture prize to be determined by preferential ballot is the Producers Guild Award, which went to “One Battle”.

• While “Sinners” mixes genres, horror movies have difficulty winning the top prize.

I won’t be surprised at either film’s name being read when the envelope is opened. It has been a colossal year for cinema and that’s something to be celebrated either way.

RAW, VOLCANIC, AND VITAL

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With love,
Karl

Streaming on Max

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