Your Guide to the Oscars
Where to stream nominees and predictions
In the words of the late, great Catherine O’Hara, it’s everyone’s favorite season: Awards. After a long, long, LONG lead-up, the 98th Academy Awards is this Sunday and has the makings to be the most exciting ceremony in year. Of the top eight categories (picture, director, screenplays and acting), four or even as many as five are up for grabs.
Leading up to Oscar night, it’s rare for two movies to be so dominant the entire season. Even in years where Best Picture was uncertain, there were signs of weakness whether it was “1917” lacking acting support or “La La Land” missing a key precursor nomination. It always felt like a tale of David and Goliath (appropriately David usually won).
This year, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” are both goliaths. Here’s my best shot at predicting what will happen Sunday night. And staying true to the newsletter, I’ll tell you where to stream the nominees.
Typically, the ceremony starts with one of the supporting races. Let’s dive into one that perfectly explains the head versus the heart when it comes to Oscar predictions.
Predicted winners are in bold. My preferred winner is in italics.
Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (streaming on HBO Max)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (streaming on Netflix)
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners” (streaming on HBO Max)***
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgard, “Sentimental Value” (available to rent)
Since 2010, if a nominee in a supporting category won both the BAFTA and the Actor (formerly Screen Actors Guild) awards they would go on to win the Oscar. Every. Single. Time. That means that Sean Penn should win for his villainous turn in “One Battle After Another”. However, for such an unprecedented year, I think we’re heading for an unprecedented win and see Delroy Lindo win for his equal parts funny and heartbreaking turn in “Sinners”.
Penn has won two Oscars, so there isn’t appetite to award him, especially considering he didn’t even bother showing up to the BAFTAs or Actors. I think that’ll lead a lot of voters to vote with their hearts. Though, that could also benefit Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgard.
Best Production Design
“Frankenstein”***
“Hamnet” (streaming on Peacock)
“Marty Supreme” (available to rent)
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
While I think the re-creation of post-war New York in “Marty Supreme” is the most-deserving winner, “Frankenstein” boasts the scientist’s lab and an entire era-accurate ship.
Best Costume Design
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Frankenstein”***
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“Sinners”
“Frankenstein” is the clear frontrunner for its elaborate period costumes. However, Ruth E. Carter is a known name and while “Sinners” has the simplest costumes, I think her period accurate work could be enough to pull the upset. I’m going to go with the stats here, but never rule out the stronger Best Picture in any category.
Best Sound
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Sirat”
“Sirat” boasts thumping electronic music, desert winds and explosions as a part of its impressive soundscape. And while “F1” matches the typical profile of a winner of this category (“vehicle make loud sound hoorah”), I think the mix of music and sound effects in “Sinners” will take it across the line.
Best Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“Jurassic World Rebirth”
“The Lost Bus”
“Sinners”
The subtler work in “F1” and “Sinners” is impressive, but not entirely obvious. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” should easily win this for a franchise threepeat. I mean, those blue people look good!
Best Original Score
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
Ludwig Göransson will win his third Oscar in just eight years for his blues-infused score for “Sinners” although I prefer Jonny Greenwood’s off-kilter, jangly score for “One Battle After Another”.
Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (streaming on HBO Max)***
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Potentially the most competitive race in Oscar history with three contenders splitting the major precursor awards. Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe for her screen-scorching performance as revolutionary Perfidia Beverly Hills in “One Battle After Another”, Wunmi Mosaku, the heart of “Sinners”, won the BAFTA and Amy Madigan won the Actor for her villainous turn in “Weapons”.
But for every tick in their favor, each actress has a tick against her. Taylor won neither of the industry awards (the Globes are voted on by journalists), Madigan is the sole nomination for her movie, and since 2010 if a supporting actress only won BAFTA she lost the Oscar every time.
I’m thinking Mosaku and Taylor split the Best Picture frontrunner vote and Madigan ekes out a tight (but well-deserved) win.
Best Original Song
“Dear Me” (“Diane Warren: Relentless”)
“Golden” (“KPop Demon Hunters”)*** (streaming on Netflix)
“I Lied to You” (“Sinners”)
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” (“Viva Verdi!”)
“Train Dreams” (“Train Dreams”)
You’ve probably been unable to escape “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” if you happen to step outside and into any given CVS. Although there’s a chance “I Lied to You” from “Sinners” pulls off a shocking upset.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein”***
“Kokuho”
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine” (streaming on HBO Max)
“The Ugly Stepsister” (streaming on Hulu)
Probably the coolest set of nominees with body horror movie “The Ugly Stepsister”, Japanese epic “Kokuho”, and Dwayne Johnson’s transformation in “The Smashing Machine” nabbing very deserved noms. But rule of thumb is if there is a Best Picture nominee in a category, they’ll likely win. And the work to transform Jacob Elordi into Frankenstein’s monster in “Frankenstein” will be too much for the Academy to pass up.
Best Film Editing
“F1”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
”Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“F1” fits the bill for the type of film that wins this category (see: “Ford v Ferrari”). However, the kinetic, heart-racing pace of “One Battle After Another” will and should win here. But don’t count “Sinners” out to pull an upset for it exquisite musical sequences.
Best Cinematography
“Frankenstein”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams” (streaming on Netflix)
“One Battle After Another” won all the necessary precursors to point to an easy win. However, Autumn Durald Arkapaw has been strong on the campaign trail and could become the first woman (and person of color) to win in this category for “Sinners” — and the Oscars love to make history. Don’t count out a double upset by “Train Dream” that was basically made for people to screenshot and say “great cinematography” on Twitter.
Best Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon” (streaming on Netflix)
“It Was Just an Accident” (streaming on Hulu)
“Marty Supreme”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”***
Ryan Coogler is all but guaranteed to take home a deserved Oscar for the most highly original screenplay of the year.
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”***
“Train Dreams”
And the same goes for Paul Thomas Anderson for his adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland”.
Best Casting
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”***
“The Secret Agent”
For the first time in 25 years, the Oscars introduced a new category. Best Casting awards (1) how well each actor fits into their roles and (2) the discovery of new actors and strong use of established actors. “Sinners” diverse cast put together by legendary casting director Francine Maisler will be an apt inaugural winner. However, the discovery of Chase Infiniti and wide ranging use of massive stars, character actors, up-and-comers and perfectly cast featured roles would make “One Battle After Another” my pick.
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (streaming on HBO Max)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (streaming on Hulu)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (streaming on Peacock)
Since the movie premiered last fall, it seemed ordained that Jessie Buckley would take home her first Oscar for her performance as a grieving mother in “Hamnet”, and after sweeping every award this season it’s all but assured. Shoutout to Rose Byrne’s markedly different take on a mother’s grief in “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”, she’s been long overdue for a nomination.
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”***
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Just a month ago, it felt all but certain that Timothée Chalamet would win his first Oscar for his towering performance in “Marty Supreme”. And then he lost… and then he lost again. It’s incredibly rare for an actor to win without first winning the BAFTA or Actor award. However, he didn’t lose BAFTA to any of his fellow nominees (winner Robert Aramayo will be eligible next year) and the Actor Award’s more populist tastes could have pushed Michael B. Jordan to a win.
However, Chalamet’s polarizing campaign (remember the sphere) and relative young age could scare voters away. And although Wagner Moura could ride a wave of support for “The Secret Agent” to a win or Ethan Hawke could garner votes for his long career for “Blue Moon”, I think it’s more likely that a popular actor in a popular movie wins. Jordan should eke out a win here by the thinnest of margins.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Paul Thomas Anderson, who’s given us masterpieces like “Boogie Nights”, “Magnolia”, and “There Will Be Blood”, will finally get his long overdue Oscar regardless of where Best Picture goes later in the night. However, Ryan Coogler could pull off a shocking upset similar to Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”) if “Sinners” pulls off an upset in Best Picture…
Best Picture
"Bugonia”
”F1”
”Frankenstein”
”Hamnet”
”Marty Supreme”
”One Battle After Another”***
”The Secret Agent”
”Sentimental Value”
”Sinners”
”Train Dreams”
There has been a real and quantifiable surge towards “Sinners” in the last few days before and during Oscar voting. And it’s not without precedent to see the late breaking Actor Award winner for Best Cast to go on to upset the established frontrunner (“Shakespeare in Love” over “Saving Private Ryan”, “Crash” over “Brokeback Mountain”, “Parasite” over “1917”). However, “One Battle After Another” is a more popular movie than any of those losing contenders.
While I think the late surge for “Sinners” will win it a few extra prizes (Supporting Actor, Actor, Cinematography), there are a few reasons I think it will ultimately be “One Battle”":
American voting bodies have split awards down the middle for both movies, while international voting bodies (about 25% of The Academy is non-American), have broken more decisively for “One Battle”.
The only Best Picture prize to be determined by preferential ballot is the Producers Guild Award, which went to “One Battle”.
While “Sinners” mixes genres, horror movies have difficulty winning the top prize.
I won’t be surprised at either film’s name being read when the envelope is opened. It has been a colossal year for cinema and that’s something to be celebrated either way.